New England Board of Higher Education » midterm elections

How New England Fared in the 2010 Midterm Elections

John O. Harney — Wed, 10 Nov 2010 16:38:11 +0000

It’s over. Gone are the acrimonious debates, boisterous crowds, vicious campaign attack ads, incessant robo calls and campaign paraphernalia cluttering street corners, highways, lawns and sidewalks. The voters have spoken in New England and across the nation.

Nationally, Republicans swept races for governor, the state legislatures and the U.S. Congress. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures (NCSL), Republicans now control the U.S. House of Representatives 240 to 186, where they added more than 60 seats, with nine races still to be resolved. In the U.S. Senate, Democrats managed to hang on by a margin of 53 to 46. The results of Alaska’s Senate race are still to be determined.

NCSL also reported that Republicans added seats in state legislatures across the U.S., with the largest gains in the East, especially in New England.

Republican gains in state legislatures by region

East                          229
Midwest                   211
South                        177
West                          94

Nationwide, Republicans picked up five additional governorships. NCSL reports that 32 states will be under new governors, including Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island and Vermont. Four of the six New England governors are Democrats. An Independent and a Republican round out the field. Maine, New Hampshire and Vermont will have new legislative leaders.

Voting trends

Nationwide, voting trends played a huge role in the outcome. Less than 21% of 18- to 29-year-olds showed up at the polls, compared with 51% in 2008, when President Barack Obama was elected.

Also, Independent voters switched their leanings in the 2010 elections, according to William A. Galston, senior fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution. In 2006, 57% of Independents voted for Democrats, while 39% voted for Republicans. In the 2010 election, 55% of Independents chose Republicans, while 39% voted for Democrats. The Pew Research Center reports that “conservatives” as a share of total Independents rose from 29% in 2006 to 36% in 2010.”

Gallup reported similar results, adding that moderates declined from 46% to 41% from 2006 to 2010. The Blue Dog Coalition or Blue Dog Democrats—fiscal conservatives with centrist positions—lost its clout in the 2010 midterm elections. Less than half were re-elected. New England’s lone Blue Dog, Congressman, U.S. Rep. Michael Michaud of Maine, was re-elected surviving a challenge by Republican Jason Levesque.

Redistricting

With current voting trends expected to continue into the next election cycle, the role of state legislatures in 2012, will be especially significant as states begin the process of redistricting. The drawing of state legislative districts and congressional districts must include the latest census figures. The party in power has everything to say about how these districts will be drawn.

In the upcoming redistricting, Massachusetts is expected to lose one congressional seat, reducing the number of seats to nine. No other New England state is expected to lose any congressional seats.

The loss of an additional congressional seat contributes to an already gloomy outlook for the region, which had claimed key leadership positions when Democrats were the party in power in Washington.

The outlook for state budgets

For the past two budget cycles, governors and legislators have had to continue to make deep budget cuts but federal stimulus funds provided some help in preserving jobs and services. For FY 2012, with stimulus funds just about dried up, state budget cuts promise to be severe. Medicaid will continue to be a budget-buster in all states. Reducing health care costs will be a priority, as the Health Care Act or Obama Care requires that states develop systems where consumers can purchase health care by 2014. Governors are expressing concern that the technology required to design such systems will be extremely costly and there will be no funds for such expenses.

NCSL executive director William Pound expects higher education to be on the chopping block, as well, despite rhetoric form Democrats and Republicans that educational attainment is a key factor in restoring the American economy and making the U.S. competitive in the global marketplace.

New England highlights

Democrat Dan Malloy wins governor’s race in Connecticut defeating Republican Tom Foley
Democrat Richard Blumenthal will replace outgoing U.S. Sen. Chris Dodd, also a Democrat.
Connecticut Democratic U.S. House members prevail in hard-fought contests.
Maine elects Republican Paul LePage as governor
Republicans take control of Maine state Legislature
Massachusetts re-elects Gov. Deval Patrick and all members of the Bay State’s congressional delegation
Republicans pick up 15 seats in Massachusetts state Legislature
Ballot question to cut sales tax is rejected by Massachusetts voters
New Hampshire Republicans take back control of state Legislature
Republican Kelly Ayotte wins U.S. Senate race, while fellow Republicans Charlie Bass and Frank Guinta, former mayor of Manchester, prevail in congressional races
New Hampshire’s Democratic Gov. John Lynch is re-elected to unprecedented fourth term
Rhode Island elects Lincoln Chafee, its first Independent governor in 156 years
Vermonters elect Democrat Peter Shumlin as governor
U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy, a Vermont Democrat, wins easily
Vermont voters give 17-year-olds the right to vote.

State by state

Connecticut elects Democratic governor, keeps Democrats in DC, statehouse

In a striking similarity to Florida’s 2000 presidential election results, Connecticut’s Secretary of State Susan Byciewicz found herself in the hot seat, as Bridgeport’s votes became the focus of determining the outcome of the governor’s race. After the final tallies of Bridgeport’s votes were made available on Friday, Nov. 5, Byciewicz’s office declared Malloy the winner in the governor’s race.

Attorney General Blumenthal will fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Dodd. Blumenthal defeated Linda McMahon of World Wrestling Entertainment who poured $50 million of her own money into the race. In Connecticut’s congressional races, John Larson handily won his bid for re-election in the 1st district. Joe Courtney prevailed in the 2^nd district, while Rosa DeLauro won in the 3^rd district. Connecticut’s 4^th and 5^th districts saw the closest races where first term Congressman Jim Himes won a very close race against challenger state Sen. Dan Debicella in the 4^th district. Chris Murphy beat back a strong challenge from state Sen. Sam Caligiuri in Connecticut’s 5^th district.

Connecticut’s General Assembly remains under control of Democrats, though Republicans made inroads. The House is poised to re-elect Chris Donovan as speaker, while Don Williams has the support of his Democratic colleagues to continue as Senate president. Former House Majority Leader Denise Merrill won her bid for secretary of state.

Governor

Dannel Malloy (D) 4
Thomas Foley (R)
Tom Marsh (I)
Warren Mossler (I)

U.S. Senate
Richard Blumenthal (D) 4
Linda McMahon (R)

U. S. House of Representatives

District 1
John Larson (D) 4
Ann Brickley (R)

District 2
Joe Courtney (D) 4
Janet Peckinpaugh (R)

District 3
Rosa DeLauro (D) 4
Jerry Labriola (R)

District 4
James Himes (D) 4
Dan Debicella (R)

District 5
Christopher Murphy (D)4
Sam Caligiuri (R)

Maine goes Republican across the board

Republican Paul LePage, the mayor of Waterville, edged out Independent Elliot Cutler to become Maine’s first Republican governor since 1990. The Democrat, former Senate President Libby Mitchell, came in third.

In the state’s two congressional districts, Chellie Pingree , won re-election in the 1^st district and Michaud in the 2^nd district. Democrats did not fare as well in the state Legislature where Republicans now have 77-to-74 edge in the House and a 20-to-14 edge in the Senate, with one recount possible. This is the first time since the 1970s that Republicans have controlled both branches. Kevin Raye appears to have the support of his colleagues to lead the Senate. Four Republicans are vying for speaker of the House, including Stacey Fitts, Paul David, Patrick Flood and Robert Nutting. Emily Cain has expressed interest in the Minority Leader’s post. Cain chaired the Appropriations Committee. Seth Berry is also interested in this position. Republicans will caucus on Nov. 12 to elect their leaders; Democrats have tentatively scheduled a caucus for Nov. 18.

Maine voters approved a $5 million bond issue to increase access to dental care in Maine by a margin of 52% to 48%.

Governor

Paul LePage (R) 4
Elliot Cutler (I)
Libby Mitchell (D)

U.S. House of Representatives

District 1
Chellie Pingree (D) 4
Dean Scontras (R)

District 2
Michael Michaud (D) 4
Jason Levesque (R)

Massachusetts stays Democratic , small gains by GOP In Mass. House

Massachusetts voters re-elected Gov. Patrick who prevailed over Republican Charles Baker and Independent Tim Cahill. Massachusetts Democrats turned out in large numbers to mitigate the effects of the Scott Brown election and re-elected Democrats at every level. Patrick had 48% of the vote, Baker 42% and Cahill 8%.

All members of the Massachusetts congressional delegation running for re-election won handily. Retiring Congressman Bill Delahunt’s seat stayed in the Democratic column, going to District Attorney William Keating, who prevailed in a close election defeating Republican state Rep. Jeff Perry. Barney Frank who faced his toughest re-election to date, won 54% to Sean Bielat’s 43%.

Republicans did pick up 17 seats in the State House, the party’s largest gain in decades. There were no Republican gains in the Senate. The leadership in the House and Senate is not expected to change with Senate President Therese Murray and House Speaker Robert DeLeo.

Voters rejected Question 3 on the ballot, which would have reduced the sales tax from 6.25% to 3%. Voters also approved removing the sales tax on alcoholic beverages, which by state law is already subject to an excise tax. Revenue from the sales tax, however, had been allocated to support substance abuse and prevention programs.

Governor

Deval Patrick (D) 4
Charles Baker (R)
Tim Cahill (I)
Jill Stein (Green Party)

U.S. House of Representatives

District 1
John Olver (D) 4
Bill Gunn (R)
Michael Engel (I)

District 2
Richard Neal (D) 4
Tom Wesley (R)

District 3
Jim McGovern (D) 4
Marty Lamb (R)

District 4
Barney Frank (D) 4
Sean Bielat (R)

District 5
Niki Tsongas (D) 4
Jon Golnik (R),
Dale Brown (I)
Bob Clark (I)

District 6
John Tierney (D) 4
Bill Hudak (R)

District 7
Edward Markey (D) 4
Gerry Dembrowski (R)

District 8
Michael Capuano (D) 4

District 9
Stephen Lynch (D) 4
Vernon Harrison (R)
Phil Dunkelbarger (I)

District 10
William Keating (D) 4
Jeff Perry (R)
Maryanne Lewis (I)
Jim Sheets (I)
Joe VanNes (Bring Home the Troops)

New Hampshire sweeps in Republicans

New Hampshire followed a nationwide trend and elected Republicans to the U.S. Congress and the state legislature. Gov. Lynch, a Democrat, was elected to an unprecedented fourth two-year term.

Democratic Congressman Paul Hodes lost his bid for the U.S. Senate to state Attorney General Ayotte, who had the backing of New Hampshire Republicans as well as Sarah Palin and the Tea Party. Republican Guinta beat incumbent Carol Shea-Porter in New Hampshire’s 1^st district, while former Congressman Bass edged out Democrat Ann Kuster in the 2^nd district.

Republicans swept elections in the state legislature, which is the largest legislative body in the United States with 424 members. It now appears that Republicans will control the House by a margin of 300 to 100. In June 2010, Democrats outnumbered Republicans 224 to 176. The New Hampshire Senate also went to Republicans who now outnumber Democrats, 19 to 5. Democrats held a majority of 14 to 10 for the past four years.

Governor

John Lynch (D) 4
John Stephen (R)

U.S. Senate

Kelly Ayotte (R) 4
Paul Hodes (D)

U.S. House of Representatives

District 1
Frank Guinta (R) 4
Carol Shea Porter (D)

District 2
Charlie Bass (R) 4
Ann Kuster (D)

RI elects Independent for gov, keeps Democrats in Congress, statehouse

For the first time in more than 150 years, Rhode Island voters elected a governor who is not affiliated with either the Democratic or Republican party. Independent Chafee edged out Republican John Robitaille 36% to 34%. with Democrat Frank Caprio placing third at 23%. President Obama did not endorse Caprio in what many saw as showing deference to Chafee who supported Obama for president.

In Rhode Island’s congressional races, U.S. Rep. James Langevin won re-election in Rhode Island’s 2^nd district, while Democratic Mayor of Providence, David Cicilline was elected in the 1^st district, replacing Patrick Kennedy, who did not seek re-election.

Rhode Island’s General Assembly remains in the hands of Democrats. Current Speaker Gordon Fox is expected to keep his post, while Senate President Teresa Paiva Weed appears to be the choice of her colleagues for the next legislative session.

Governor
Lincoln Chafee (I) 4
John Robitaille (R)
Frank Caprio (D)
Ken Block (Moderate Party)

U.S. House of Representatives

District 1
David Cicilline (D) 4
John Loughlin (R)
Gregory Raposa (I)

District 2
James Langevin (D) 4
Mark Zaccaria (R)

Vermont goes decidedly Democrat

Democrat Peter Shumlin was elected governor in a close race with Lt. Governor Brian Dubie. Only 4,000 votes separated the two candidates. Vermont law states that if both candidates get less than 50% of the vote, the legislature decides who will be elected. Dubie has indicated he has no intention of pursuing a challenge.

At the congressional level, both U.S. Sen. Patrick Leahy and U.S. Rep. Peter Welch won re-election.

Completing a decidedly Democratic victory at all level of government, the Vermont General Assembly remains in the hands of Democrats. The House gives Democrats a clear majority, 93 Democrats, 49 Republicans, five Progressives and three Independents. Republicans picked up a seat in the Senate, but Democrats control the chamber 22 to 8.

Vermont voters approved a ballot measure to give 17-year-olds the right to vote if they turn 18 by the time of the General Election.

Governor
Peter Shumlin (D) 4
Brian Dubie (R)

U.S. Senate

Patrick Leahy (D) 4
Len Britton (R)

U.S. House of Representatives
Peter Welch (D) 4
Paul Beaudry (R)

____________________________________________________________

Carolyn Morwick is a consultant at NEBHE and former director of the Caucus of New England State Legislatures.

Special Policy Report: A High-Stakes Election for New England

John O. Harney — Wed, 13 Oct 2010 15:53:04 +0000

Like the traditional four seasons in New England, election season has the potential to bring about stunning change. This year, races at the gubernatorial, federal and state legislative levels will have significant impacts on education and policy in the region for years to come.

The political landscape in New England will be dramatically altered following the Nov. 2 midterm elections. At least four of the six New England states will elect new governors. Governors M. Jodi Rell (R-Conn.), John E. Baldacci (D-Maine), Donald Carcieri (R-R.I.) and James Douglas (R-Vt.) are not seeking re-election. Deval Patrick (D-Mass.) and John Lynch (D-N.H.) are seeking re-election, but both face challengers.

At the federal level, two new U.S. senators will be elected from Connecticut and New Hampshire. Democrat Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Republican Judd Gregg of New Hampshire are not seeking re-election. In addition to the Senate seats, two seats in the U.S. House of Representatives opened up when William Delahunt of the 10^th Congressional District in Massachusetts retired, and Paul Hodes of the 2^nd Congressional District in New Hampshire vacated his post to run for Gregg’s Senate seat.

In what some are calling, “the Scott Brown factor”, House members from each New England state are being challenged, except Mike Capuano (D-Mass.) who is running unopposed. Members of New England’s congressional delegation occupy positions on key committees. But in recent years, the region’s clout has waned. New England’s influence on the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions has diminished considerably with the passing of Edward M. Kennedy who chaired the HELP Committee, and the retirements of Dodd and Gregg. The remaining New Englanders on the committee include Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.). Dodd also chaired the powerful Senate Committee on Banks, Housing and Urban Affairs.

With anger running high among voters and jobs front and center, those seeking to be re-elected are in many cases facing strong opposition. Depending on the outcome of midterm elections, key committees in congress, which influence education, workforce development policy and investment may undergo more changes.

Current members of these committees from New England are as follows:

House Budget Committee

Focus: setting total spending limits for the federal budget

New England members: James McGovern (D-Mass.), Niki Tsongas (D-Mass.)

House Appropriations Committee

Focus: discretionary federal funding, Subcommittee on Labor, HHS, Education and Related Agencies determines funding levels for job training, education and human services based on House Budget Committee funding targets

New England members: Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), John Olver (D-Mass.)

House Education and Labor Committee

Focus: federal programs in education from preschool through higher education, including Workforce Investment Act, Higher Education Act, Perkins Act for Career, Technical Education and Adult Basic Education

New England members: John Tierney (D-Mass.), Joe Courtney (D-Conn.), Carol Shea Porter (D-N.H.)

House Ways and Means Committee

Focus: all federal tax policies, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Trade Adjustment Assistance

New England members: John Larson (D-Conn.), Richard Neal (D-Mass.)

Senate Budget Committee

Focus: sets total spending limits for the federal budget

New England members: Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.)

Senate Appropriations Committee

Focus: sets funding levels for job training, education and human services

New England members: Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Jack Reed (D-R.I), who is a member of the key Subcommittee on Labor, HHS, Education and Related Agencies

Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee

Focus: authorizes Workforce Investment Act, Higher Education Act, Perkins Act, Adult Basic Education.

New England members: Reed (D-R.I.), Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) Dodd and Gregg are members of the key Subcommittee on Employment and Workplace Safety until 12/31/10.)

Senate Finance Committee

Focus: Authorizes all federal tax policies, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families, Trade Adjustment Assistance.

New England members: John Kerry (D-Mass.), Olympia J. Snowe (R-Maine) Neither Kerry nor Snowe are members of the key Subcommittee on Social Security, Pensions and Family Policy.

Contested Races in New England

Connecticut

Governor

Thomas Foley (R)

Dannel Malloy (D)

Tom Marsh (I)

Warren Mossler (I)

Democrat Malloy, a former prosecutor and mayor of Stamford will face off with Republican businessman, Foley. Latest polls show the race tightening with Foley gaining. The latest Quinnipiac University poll gives Malloy a 3-point lead, while Rasmussen polls say Malloy is up by 5 points. The polls also indicate that Independent voters are breaking for the Republican candidate, Foley.

U.S. Senate

Richard Blumenthal (D)

Linda McMahon (R)

This Senate seat has been vacated by long time Democratic Sen. Dodd, who chose not to seek re-election. Attorney General Blumenthal, a Democrat, hopes to prevail over Republican McMahon, former head of World Wrestling Entertainment, a Stamford based company. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Blumenthal leading with 54% to McMahon’s 43%.

U. S. House of Representatives

District 1

John Larson (D)

Ann Brickley (R)

Democratic U.S. Rep. Larson has served six terms and is currently part of Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s leadership team and a member of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee. Larson is facing a tough fight from Republican Brickley, a professional engineer, who worked for United Technologies Corp. and GE. Brickley has moved up in the polls and now trails Larson by 7 points.

District 2

Joe Courtney (D)

Janet Peckinpaugh (R)

Democratic U.S. Rep. Courtney, who is seeking a third term, is a member of the House Education and Labor Committee. He is being challenged by Republican Peckinpaugh, a small business owner. The latest polls conducted by Merriman River Group show Courtney leading Peckinpaugh 55% to 41%.

District 3

Rosa DeLauro (D)

Jerry Labriola (R)

Democratic U.S. Rep. DeLauro has served ten terms and sits on the powerful House Appropriations Committee, where she chairs the Subcommittee on Agriculture and is a member of the Subcommittee on Labor, HHS, Labor, Education and Related Agencies. She is being challenged by Republican Labriola , an attorney and treasurer of the Republican State Committee. DeLauro currently leads Labriola by more than 20 points.

District 4

James Himes (D)

Dan Debicella (R)

Connecticut’s 4^th Congressional District is a statistical dead heat. Democratic U.S. Rep. Himes is seeking his second term and is being challenged by Republican state Sen. Debicella, who has a narrow lead according to the latest polls by Merriman River Group. Political observers say the race will be decided by the city of Bridgeport.

District 5

Christopher Murphy (D)

Sam Caligiuri (R)

Two-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Murphy has fallen behind challenger, Republican State Sen. Caligiuri. The latest Merriman River Group poll shows Cailigiuri moving ahead of Murphy.

Maine

Governor

Libby Mitchell (D)

Paul LePage (R)

Elliot Cutler (I)

Shawn Moody (I)

Kevin Scott (I)

The race for governor is tightening. The Maine Center for Public Opinion’s most recent poll shows Republican LePage virtually tied with Democrat Mitchell. Results show LePage at 30%, Mitchell at 29%, Independent candidates Cutler at 11%, Moody at 5% and Scott at 1.5%, with 24% of voters still undecided.

U.S. House of Representatives

District 1

Chellie Pingree (D)

Dean Scontras (R)

A new poll by the Maine Center for Public Opinion shows Republican Scontras, a co-owner of an alternative energy company, is gaining on Democratic U.S. Rep. Pingree, who is seeking her second term. Some polls have Pingree leading by as many as 15 points, while others say her lead has narrowed to 7 points. Pingree serves on the House Armed Services Committee and the House Rules Committee.

District 2

Michael Michaud (D)

Jason Levesque (R)

Democratic U.S. Rep. Michaud is seeking his sixth term. He is facing strong opposition from businessman and army veteran, Levesque. Recent polls put Michaud at 44% and Levesque at 32%, with 24%undecided.

Massachusetts

Governor

Deval Patrick (D)

Charles Baker (R)

Tim Cahill (I)

Jill Stein (Green Party)

The race for governor of Massachusetts continues to be close. Democratic Gov. Patrick, seeking a second term, is tied with Republican Baker, former CEO of Harvard Pilgrim Health Care. In a messy political situation, Independent candidate, Cahill, charged Republicans with undermining his campaign (Cahill’s lieutenant governor left the campaign and endorsed Baker) while the Baker campaign countered that Cahill has used state employees in his campaign. Cahill may earn some sympathy from voters but not enough to make a difference. Green Party candidate, Dr. Jill Stein is expected to run a distant fourth.

U.S. House of Representatives

District 1

John Olver (D)

Bill Gunn (R)

Michael Engel (I)

Democratic U.S. Rep. Olver is a solid bet, according to the Cook Political Report. The 10-term congressman is being challenged by Republican Gunn of Ware, who owns a construction company, and Engel, an Independent from Southampton. Olver sits on the House Appropriations Committee.

District 2

Richard Neal (D)

Tom Wesley (R)

Ten-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Neal is expected to be easily re-elected. He is being challenged by Republican Wesley, a businessman and former military pilot. Neal sits on the House Ways and Means Committee.

District 3

Jim McGovern (D)

Marty Lamb (R)

Democratic U.S. Rep. McGovern is seeking his eighth term. He serves as vice chair of the Rules Committee and a member of the House Budget Committee. He is being challenged by Republican Lamb, a real estate attorney from Holliston, and Independent Patrick Barron of Worcester. McGovern is expected to win.

District 4

Barney Frank (D)

Sean Bielat (R)

Democratic U.S. Rep. Frank, seeking a 16^th term, faces his toughest re-election bid in two decades. Frank, the chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, is being challenged by Republican Bielat, an ex-Marine and businessman from Brookline. Recent polls conducted by Bielat’s campaign, show Frank ahead by 10 points.

District 5

Niki Tsongas (D)

Jon Golnik (R)

Dale Brown (I)

Bob Clark (I)

Two-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Tsongas currently serves on the House Armed Services Committee and the House Budget Committee. She is being is challenged by Republican businessman Golnik of Carlisle, and Independent candidates, Brown of Chelmsford and Clark of Berlin.

District 6

John Tierney (D)

Bill Hudak (R)

Democratic U.S. Rep. Tierney, is a member of the House Education and Labor Committee and the House Select Intelligence Committee. Tierney is being challenged by Republican Hudak, an attorney from Saugus. The race is expected to tighten given recent events involving the congressman’s wife Patrice Tierney, who has admitted to irregularities in filing tax returns.

District 7

Edward Markey (D)

Gerry Dembrowski (R)

The dean of the Massachusetts congressional delegation, Markey has served 17 terms. He currently chairs the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming and the Energy and Environment Subcommittee of the House Energy and Commerce Committee. Markey is opposed by Republican Dembrowski, a chiropractor from Woburn. Markey is expected to win re-election.

District 8

Michael Capuano (D)

Democratic U.S. Rep. Capuano is running unopposed for a 7^th term. Capuano serves on the House Financial Services Committee and the House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee.

District 9

Stephen Lynch (D)

Vernon Harrison (R)

Phil Dunkelbarger (I)

Democratic U.S. Rep. Lynch is a member of the House Financial Services Committee and the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform. He is seeking a sixth term and is opposed by Republican Harrison of Braintree who is employed in the IT field, and Independent Phil Dunkelbarger of Westwood. Lynch is expected to win re-election.

District 10

William Keating (D

Jeff Perry (R)

Maryanne Lewis (I)

Jim Sheets (I)

Joe VanNes (Bring Home the Troops)

In the 10^th Congressional District, those vying to fill Democrat Delahunt’s place include Democrat William Keating, a district attorney and former state senator; Republican Jeff Perry, a state representative; and independent candidates, Maryanne Lewis, a former state representative, Jim Sheets, former mayor of Quincy, and Joe VanNes (Bring Home the Troops). Keating is seen as the candidate to beat. While party registration favors a Democrat, Scott Brown won 60%of the vote in this district.

New Hampshire

Governor

John Lynch (D)

John Stephen (R)

New Hampshire’s Democratic Gov. Lynch is running for an unprecedented fourth (two-year) term. Lynch is opposed by Republican Stephen, former head of New Hampshire Health and Human Services Department. Lynch is considered the front-runner.

U.S. Senate

Kelly Ayotte (R)

Paul Hodes (D)

Republican Ayotte, New Hampshire’s Attorney General, will face off with Democratic U.S. Rep. Hodes, who gave up his congressional seat to run for the senate seat vacated by Gregg. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Ayotte at 51% to Hodes’s 44%.

U.S. House of Representatives

District 1

Carol Shea Porter (D)

Frank Guinta (R)

Democratic Rep. Shea Porter is seeking a third term. She is a member of the House Armed Services Committee, the House Education and Labor Committee. She is opposed by Republican Frank Guinta, former mayor of Manchester. The latest poll conducted by the UNH Survey Center for WMUR shows Guinta leading 49% to 39%, reversing a 15-point lead previously held by Shea Porter.

District 2

Ann Kuster (D)

Charlie Bass (R)

This is an open seat, vacated by Democratic U.S. Rep. Hodes. Former U.S. Rep. Bass leads newcomer Annie Kuster, an attorney and community activist, by 5 points. Prior to the primaries, Bass enjoyed an 18-point lead. While Kuster hopes to close the gap, a high turnout by Republican voters could tip the election.

Rhode Island

Governor

Frank Caprio (D)

John Robitaille (R)

Lincoln Chafee (I)

Ken Block (Moderate Party)

Two months ago, Democrat Caprio and Independent Lincoln Chafee were tied. The latest Brown University poll shows Caprio with a widening lead over Chafee. Caprio is now in the lead with 30%, followed by Chafee at 23%, Republican Robitaille at 14% and Moderate Party candidate Block at 1%.

U.S. House of Representatives

District 1

David Cicilline (D)

John Loughlin (R)

Gregory Raposa (I)

In the race for Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District once represented by Patrick Kennedy, a Brown University poll shows Democratic mayor of Providence Cicilline in the lead with 39%, Republican state Rep. Loughlin at 21%, Independent Raposa at 6% and 31% undecided.

District 2

James Langevin (D)

Mark Zaccaria (R)

In Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional District, incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Langevin has a comfortable lead over his opponent, Republican Zaccaria. The latest Brown poll shows Langevin leading with 47% of the vote over Zacarria’s 13%.

Vermont

Governor

Brian Dubie (R)

Peter Shumlin (D)

The latest Rasmussen poll shows Democrat Shumlin leading his Republican opponent, Lt. Governor Brian Dubie by three points. But only 2% of those polled had decided whom they will vote for.

U.S. Senate

Patrick Leahy (D)

Len Britton (R)

Democratic U.S. Sen. Leahy is expected to win handily over Republican businessman Len Britton of Taftsville. Leahy has served in the Senate for 36 years where he chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee and is a member of the Senate Agriculture Committee and Senate Appropriations Committee.

U.S. House of Representatives

Peter Welch (D)

Paul Beaudry (R)

Democratic U.S. Rep. Welch is seeking re-election for a third term. Welch sits on the House Energy and Commerce Committee and the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. According to the latest Rasmussen poll, Welch is well ahead of his Republican challenger and Tea Party Leader Paul Beaudry by 30 points.

____________________________________________________________

Carolyn Morwick is a consultant at NEBHE and former director of the Caucus of New England State Legislatures.