Trends & Indicators Archive: Demography 2014

Demography 2014

To best serve the region, higher education leaders and policymakers must know the population they are serving. To that end, this section of Trends & Indicators explores demography with an eye toward higher education.

Among other findings, recent demographic data reveal:

  • While population growth in all the six New England states has lagged behind the rest of the nation since 2000, it nearly ground to a halt in 2013, including growth rates of less than 1% in all but three counties in the region. All three counties with population growth above 1% were in Massachusetts.
  • New England’s lack of growth via natural increases (greater numbers of births than deaths) is expected to continue, as the region’s population becomes older than the rest of the country’s, with 44% of New England residents over age 45 compared to the country’s 41%. In fact, the three Northern New England states (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont) have the highest median ages in the country. Importantly, this aging trend means a large share of New England women are beyond childbearing age.
  • Implications of these population trends include declines in the number of high school graduates and threats to public education overall, as outlined in demographer Peter Francese’s piece in The New England Journal of Higher Education.

  • Figure DEM 1: Change in Population, 2000 to 2013, New England States and U.S.

    Fig_DEM01_2014

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    Source: New England Board of Higher Education analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.


    Figure DEM 2: Population Growth by New England County, 2012 to 2013

    Fig_DEM02_2014

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    Source: U.S. Census Bureau.


    Figure DEM 3: Primary Source of Population Growth by New England County, 2012 to 2013

    Fig_DEM03_2014

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    Note: Natural increase is made up of both births and deaths. Migration is made up of both net migration and net international migration. Equal indicates population growth driven equally by natural increase and net migration.

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau.


    Figure DEM 4: New England Population Trends and Projections by Age Group, 2005-25

     

    Fig_DEM04_2014

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    Source: Peter Francese analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and New England states' projections data.

     


    Figure DEM 5: New England Population Trends and Projections in Millions of School-age Children and Adults 65 Years and Older, 2000-25

     

    Fig_DEM05_2014

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    Source: Peter Francese analysis of U.S. Census Bureau and New England states' projections data.

     


    Figure DEM 6: Share of Population by Age, 2013

    Fig_DEM06_2014

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    Source: U.S. Census Bureau.


    Figure DEM 7: Racial and Ethnic Composition of Northern and Southern New England States, 2013

    Fig_DEM07_2014

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    Note: People who identify their origin as Hispanic/Latino may be of any race. In this chart, race categories start at 0° (or "noon" on an analog clock) and continue to the right (or "clockwise") in order of the legend.

    Source: New England Board of Higher Education analysis of U.S. Census Bureau data.


    Figure DEM 8: Share of Population with a Bachelor's Degree or Higher by Age Group, 2013

    Fig_DEM08_2014

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    Source: U.S. Census Bureau.


    Figure DEM 9: Share of Population by Household Income in New England, 1999 and 2012

    Fig_DEM09_2014

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    Note: 1999 income estimates are in 1999 dollars while 2012 income estimates are in 2012 dollars. Inflation rose approximately 38% from 1999 to 2012. For reference, the poverty threshold for a family of four in 1999 was $18,103; in 2012, it was $23,492.

    Source: U.S. Census Bureau.


    T&I Archives: Click below to view Demography information from previous Trends & Indicators coverage:


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